#RIPUSA Trump's New World Order?

Though he might be a novice in foreign policy, Donald Trump could bring about dramatic changes in the global arena by aligning with Russia against China. In this scenario, Russia would have an opportunity to align with Western civilization, ending a millennium-long schism. Will Russia be ready to end its cozy relations with the radical regime in Iran to become a true US ally in the fight against militant Islam?

US President-Elect Donald Trump lacks foreign policy experience, and during the election campaign did not proffer any comprehensive outlook on global affairs. He offered bits and pieces of ideas (building a wall along the Mexican border, moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, disparaging NATO, and demanding that allies raise their defense expenditures). Overall, he expressed isolationist sentiments alongside inconsistent and unpredictable thoughts. In any case, his focus is likely to be on domestic affairs.

Still, Trump might surprise observers. It is already emerging that he does, in fact, have clear preferences in global affairs. It seems he likes Russia (or, specifically, Vladimir Putin) and dislikes China, the two most powerful international actors other than the US. Trump probably admires Putin as a strong, charismatic leader who is intent on making Russia great again. Trump’s nomination of Rex Tillerson, a man with excellent contacts in Moscow, as Secretary of State signals a planned thaw in American-Russian relations.

In contrast, when Trump looks at China, he sees an economic rival that needs to be cut down to size. Trump feels that American industries and jobs have been stolen by China, and that Beijing is playing unfairly with its currency and taxes on US-made products. Significantly, Trump has already departed from America’s qualified “One China” policy (dating back to 1979) by taking a phone call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. This, together with the presence of strong Taiwan backers in the incoming administration, and with Trump’s recent meeting with Prime Minister Abe of Japan, hint that Trump might be heading towards a policy of confrontation with China.

It is possible that these moves are purely tactical, and are aimed at securing a better opening position in negotiations over elements of the US-China bilateral relationship. But Trump will soon hear from his foreign policy and defense advisers that a rising China is a major challenge to “making America great again” in a geopolitical sense.

Acting on his basic instincts, Trump may well be capable of grand Kissingerian diplomacy, without possessing Kissinger’s historic, intellectual and strategic baggage. Trump could be aiming for détente with Russia and the enlistment of Putin against China.

If this happens, it would constitute a radical shift in the global balance of power, considerably enhancing American leverage in international affairs. Moreover, it holds the potential for Russia’s integration into the West. After all, Russia is culturally part of Western civilization in many ways. Obvious examples are Russian literature, music and ballet, and of course its Christian heritage.

The American post-Cold War stance regarding Russia was very problematic. In the 1990s, there was an opportunity to bring Russia into the Western architecture. A Russia characterized by a resurgent Christianity and a desire to modernize could have become an integral part of the Western world, ending a millennium-long schism – or, at least, a valued ally.

But the expansion of NATO and the EU eastward, which ignored historical Russian sensibilities, heightened the threat perception of the Russian leaders who had lost the Cold War. Western attempts to politically engineer Ukraine, so close to Moscow’s heartland, and the subsequent imposition of economic sanctions on Russia’s moves in Crimea and Ukraine are the most recent examples of Western geopolitical mistakes that pushed Russia away.

Western pressure on Russia also led to a partial Chinese-Russian entente. The Chinese demographic threat in Siberia and the struggle over central Asia were put aside to form an anti-American front.

Trump seems ready to move in a different direction.  In July 2016, candidate Trump defied political correctness by saying he would consider recognizing Crimea as Russian territory and lifting sanctions against Russia. He may well accept the return of Ukraine to Russia’s sphere of influence.

Trump also seems to have little patience with European allies who prefer that the US bear most of their defense burden. It remains to be seen whether Trump will be able to overcome anti-Russian and anti-Putin sentiment in Congress, particularly among Republicans. Many of them are unforgiving regarding human rights violations by Moscow (while more forgiving about those committed by Beijing).

The big question, of course, is whether there will be a Russian quid pro quo. Trump is a businessman and is likely to expect something valuable in return. He will need visible benefits with which to market any grand deal with Russia to Congress and the American people.

Will Russia be ready to end its cozy relations with the radical regime in Iran to become a true US ally in the fight against militant Islam? Will it settle for a small, Assad-ruled Syria without Iranian and Hezbollah control? Will Russia be flexible enough to end its territorial conflict with Japan over the Kurile Islands to buttress the anti-China realignment?

Trump probably expects Russia to take these steps. Will Putin take a historic gamble and align with the West, as did Peter the Great?

There are no clear answers yet. For its part, Israel should be cognizant of the fact that a Trump administration will be capable of radical change in global affairs. The changes to the big picture that Trump might produce could have fateful implications for the Jewish state. Israel should work assiduously to promote its interests in this new environment, capitalizing on its strong strategic partnership with the US and good working relations with Russia.

#RIPUSA, #AmericaHangsItsHeadIn Shame Trump Outsmarts Experts All the Way to White House

 Donald Trump was right.

During a rally last week in Minnesota, as the GOP nominee rooted around in traditionally Democratic turf for electoral votes that could launch him to the White House, he shrugged at detractors who doubted his seemingly long-shot strategy.


“So far, in two years, I’ve been right and they’ve been wrong,” Trump said of the television pundits who had declared the race finished. “We’re going to have some surprise on Tuesday.”

The vote Tuesday indeed unfolded as one of the great stunners in American political history. Trump will be the next president of the United States, having surged on Election Day in states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that many Republicans had written off. His victory signaled the rise in America of populism and nationalism, under Trump’s banner of “America first” and his pledge to “make America great again.”

Trump addressed his supporters early Wednesday at a hotel in midtown New York City, shortly after the major television networks had called the race. Acknowledging the acrimony of the campaign and adopting a softer tone, he promised “every citizen that I will be president for all Americans.”


“Now it is time for America to bind the wounds of division,” Trump said. “It is time for us to come together as one united people.”

“I promise you that I will not let you down,” he added. “I love this country.”

Although Hillary Clinton did not deliver public remarks, Trump said she called to congratulate him and concede the race.

“She fought very hard,” he noted. “Hilary has worked very hard over a long period of time, and we owe her a debt of gratitude for her service.”


The evening marked a stunning finish to Trump’s unlikely rise from first-time candidate to the highest political office. Most prognosticators first said he would not run, and then believed he could not win. But at every turn he upended expectations and conventional wisdom, and proved more resilient than his rivals judged.

Trump also proved to be an effective conduit for his core message: a populist, nationalist appeal that featured harsh anti-immigrant, anti-trade rhetoric — beginning with the speech that launched his candidacy in which he characterized undocumented Mexican immigrants as “rapists” and pledged to “renegotiate our foreign trade deals.” Those themes drew a historic share of white working-class voters to Trump, swelling turnout in rural areas as Clinton’s coalition of college-educated voters and minorities underperformed.

“Donald Trump rewrote the map of the United States,” said Rep. Pete King, a New York Republican who backed the nominee. “The political world will never be the same again.”

On the campaign trail, Trump had recently taken to calling himself “Mr. Brexit,” a nod to the surprising vote earlier this year by Britons to withdraw from the European Union. That groundswell also caught politics watchers unaware, and was propelled by the same political sentiments that elevated Trump.

His victory Tuesday bore striking similarities to that event, not only in the forces driving it but in the complexion of Trump’s supporters, who were on the whole less educated than Clinton’s and more likely to live in exurban or rural areas.

“I hate to compare this too much to Brexit, but it’s kind of a Brexit effect,” said Matt Oczkowski of Cambridge Analytica, a data firm used by the Trump campaign. “Rural turnout was crazy.”

“It turned out this disenfranchised Trump voter that we’ve been talking about, it’s really true,” Oczkowski added.

The strategy was the brainchild in particular of Trump Campaign Chairman Steve Bannon, who had no prior campaign experience when he signed on to work for Trump from Breitbart News, an outlet that served as Trump’s mouthpiece during the election. Beginning in mid-September, Bannon directed that the campaign redouble efforts in Michigan, New Hampshire and Maine, states that were not on most radar screens. And he pored over the demographics that he thought would respond to Trump’s message.

Bannon “has got a real interest in the middle America, Midwest electorate and reclaiming the working class for the Republican Party,” said one Trump campaign aide, “so you saw him doing a lot more to focus on states like Michigan.”

But, as with Brexit, Trump’s ascension to the presidency will now feature a great deal of uncertainty likely to wreak havoc, at least initially, on financial markets and the international community. Futures trading was halted late Tuesday as investors panicked at early signs of Trump’s victory.

Gerard Araud, French ambassador to the United States, tweeted: “A world is collapsing before our eyes. Dizziness."

“They said the same thing when Ronald Reagan got elected — all the foreign countries got upset,” King assured reporters at Trump’s victory party. “They’ll get used to it, too.”

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Trump praised throughout the election, sent the victor a message of congratulation early Wednesday, the Associated Press reported.

The result early Wednesday, while a shock to the United States and the world, unquestionably traces its roots to the presidential election four years ago. On the morning after Mitt Romney lost, Trump took to Twitter, writing for the first time: “We have to make America great again!”

In the aftermath, the Republican Party had one answer to Romney’s defeat: to temper its harshest rhetoric and seek to expand its reach to minorities and women.

Trump had another solution.

The celebrity businessman ultimately adopted a populist message that had more in common with Rick Santorum’s approach during the 2012 Republican primary than with Romney’s — coupling severe protectionist rhetoric with his unique image as a Washington outsider free from personal debts to special interests or party powerbrokers.

Those elements appealed to a deeply disaffected electorate, even as the nation’s economy has improved overall and added jobs.

“The American people aren’t happy. The American people have the right not to be happy,” said Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, a prominent Trump supporter who also advised the campaign. “Some people think this is just some mindless anger out there. That is not correct.”

“People underestimated the discontent that average Americans felt,” echoed Joe Borelli, a New York City councilman and a visible Trump supporter on cable news throughout the election. “It was palpable to everyone who travelled the country, but the media and pundits were blind to it.”

The voters who elevated Trump to victory chose to overlook his historically low favorability ratings, which rank him among the most unpopular presidential candidates ever, and concerns about his temperament and qualifications. Clinton, in her campaign, sought to depict Trump as fundamentally unfit for the office of the presidency.

Trump also overcame multiple major setbacks and controversies, including an audio recording released in the final stretch of the campaign in which Trump bragged that his celebrity enabled him to kiss women without consent and “grab them by the pussy.”

But Trump notably became more disciplined in the final phase of his campaign, when he brought on Bannon and promoted Kellyanne Conway, a pollster with particular experience in campaign messaging. As Trump’s mouthpiece, Conway worked with the Republican nominee to soften his tone and urged him to stay on message, entreaties he mostly followed.

Now, Trump will face a climb not only to unite Americans around him, but also to govern with lawmakers, Republican and Democratic, who view him skeptically or reject him entirely. Bringing together Republicans will likely be the first order of business, and Trump praised Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus on Wednesday as “a superstar.”

King said he had no doubts the president-elect will succeed at governing. “He’s overcome every obstacle up to now, and this is the final obstacle he’ll overcome,” he said. “Let’s face it: Donald Trump likes to make things work. He wants to get it done.”