The ANC Fight for Succession : Who will follow Zuma as President

The ruling party's most senior members have locked horns, promising a bloody presidential succession race




For provincial and national internal elections, a candidate who has eThekwini on their side has a huge advantage.

The ANC has had so many chaotic elective conferences, it is tempting to dismiss last weekend’s aborted eThekwini regional gathering as yet another episode in the long-running post-Polokwane soap opera.

But this would be a grave mistake. What happened last Saturday at Durban’s Greyville Racecourse has serious implications for the race to succeed President Jacob Zuma as ANC leader when he steps down in two years.

In case you missed it, here is a recap of events:

Earlier this year, eThekwini — the ANC’s biggest region in terms of membership figures — held an elective conference in which mayor James Nxumalo narrowly beat his rival, eThekwini councillor Zandile Gumede, to the post of regional chairman.

The elections were nullified by Luthuli House after Gumede’s supporters complained about one of the branches that had been allowed to vote although it did not meet the constitutional requirements for participating in the conference.

Last weekend, the conference was reconvened, with Nxumalo and Gumede still in the race. By all indications, the mayor — who also happens to be the SACP’s provincial chairman — was destined to win the vote again.

Then, a section of Gumede’s supporters apparently tried to sabotage the conference by initially staying away from the venue, in the hope that this would cause the gathering not to form a quorum.

When they realised that the strategy would not work — more than 260 of the 410 accredited delegates were already at the venue — the Gumede camp changed tactics and decided to attend.

Trouble ensued soon after the conference started.

A group of Gumede supporters disrupted KwaZulu-Natal premier and ANC provincial chairman Senzo Mchunu’s speech, protesting that one of the branches in their camp had been barred from attending the conference.

Not even the intervention of ANC national executive committee member Joe Phaahla, who tried to explain to the protesters why that branch’s five delegates had to be excluded, helped. The conference degenerated into chaos and party bosses eventually agreed that the branch be allowed to attend.

Immediately a problem emerged: the protesters now had a new demand. They wanted Mchunu and other members of the provincial executive committee as well as the ANC Youth League’s provincial task team to leave the conference. They did not trust them, they said, claiming they were involved in “rigging” the previous regional vote.

The conference collapsed. Nxumalo’s supporters believed this was the Gumede grouping’s objective all along because they had realised they would not win.

“Their numbers were low and they were hellbent on ending the conference,” said a provincial executive committee member sympathetic to the Nxumalo faction.

But why would the collapse of a conference in South Africa’s third-biggest metro have implications for those in the running to replace Zuma as the ANC’s next leader in 2017 and — if the ANC wins the 2019 elections, as expected — the next president?

With 75000 registered members, eThekwini remains the ANC’s largest and most influential region, despite having lost 25000 members since the party’s last national congress in 2012.

For both provincial and national internal party elections, therefore, a candidate who has eThekwini on their side has a huge advantage.

At provincial level, a Nxumalo victory is seen as something that would boost Mchunu’s chances of remaining KwaZulu-Natal premier and ANC chairman beyond 2019.

A Gumede victory would shift the balance of forces in favour of provincial party secretary Sihle Zikalala, who is said to be campaigning to replace Mchunu.

At national level, Zikalala is regarded as close to ANC treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize.

For months, Mkhize has been said to be campaigning quietly for the ANC deputy presidency on a ticket that would then have the current deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa, as president.

The assumption was that Mkhize would run against current secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, a former unionist who has also served as the SACP’s national chairman.

Mantashe was seen as Nxumalo’s natural ally, given the association of the two candidates with the SACP. But a decision by Mantashe to nullify the first conference has left angry Nxumalo supporters accusing him of betrayal and making unsubstantiated claims that he had struck a deal with Mkhize that would see the two of them take over the ANC presidency in 2017.

“What is happening is that Mantashe and Mchunu fell out. Mantashe has now formed an alliance with No2 [Ramaphosa]. They have told him [Mantashe] that Ramaphosa will go back to business and Mantashe will be president and Zweli will be his deputy. Now he is doing all these things because of his presidential ambitions,” said an ANC-SACP leader closely linked to the Nxumalo campaign.

According to this theory, Mkhize would bring to the campaign KwaZulu-Natal’s huge support base and Mantashe would deliver the Eastern Cape, the party’s second-biggest province by numbers.

But Mantashe denied all this and said his detractors should not point fingers at him for the collapsed conference.

“Wait, you have presidential ambitions and you go use that at regional conferences? Not even provincial conferences?

“Don’t you think that’s an exaggeration of people who see themselves as very important? Where is the link? I want to be president? Then I am very ambitious. In other words, comrade Cyril is a wrong deputy ...

“It is rumours if they say this conference was collapsed by Gwede, who was not there, by the way. They disrupted it themselves,” Mantashe said.

Despite Mantashe’s denials, and clear evidence that the two attempts to have the conference were thwarted by the warring factions, perceptions of Luthuli House’s interference are now treated as fact by both sides to the conflict.

Whichever side eventually wins the conference would most likely align itself with whomever it believes had been on its side.

ANC members on the ground believe their top six leaders to be deeply divided over who should succeed Zuma. Party structures, at least in the largest region, operate on the basis that the presidential race will involve Ramaphosa, Mkhize, Mantashe and party national chairwoman and National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete — all of whom currently hold top-six ANC posts.

The only possible candidate outside of the top six would be African Union Commission chairwoman Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who is said to have the backing of her former husband.

But it is the perception that four of the six top leaders are fighting over who should succeed Zuma that is causing damage to the ruling party, with every decision being perceived as being motivated by the need to advance their own careers.

As a result, these leaders are now unable to stop the kind of chaos witnessed at last weekend’s eThekwini conference.